Forecast Discussion

Date: Friday, August 17, 2018 - 15:00 ET

Forecast Valid: Saturday, August 18, 2018

Today's Air Quality Conditions: Ozone values are Code Green statewide. Particle pollution levels are holding in the lower Code Yellow range across much of the state this afternoon, with Code Green values now moving into the Charlotte region. For a display of the most recent air quality conditions throughout the remainder of this afternoon, please visit the US EPA's AIRNOW web site.

General Forecast Discussion: Tomorrow, the upper level trough to the west will approach, and should provide enough large scale forcing in the form of positive vorticity advection and geopotential height falls to initiate more widespread convection. With increased clouds and the potential for rain, ozone levels should lower into the Code Green range statewide for most and a cleaner air mass to the southwest moving in already will likely also lower particle pollution levels into the Code Green range statewide.

Outlook: On Sunday and Monday, a continued wet pattern as Bermuda high pressure remains to the west and a cold front slowly approaches from the west. A tropical air mass and afternoon storms should hold air quality levels in the Code Green range.

Extended Air Quality Outlook
Forecast Day
AQI Range
Category Range
Saturday 40 Green
Sunday 35-45 Green
Monday 35-45 Green

Note: Ozone is forecast from April 1 to October 31. During the cool season ozone is typically in the Code Green range.

(McLamb - NC Division of Air Quality)


Date: Thursday, August 16, 2018 - 15:00 ET

Forecast Valid: Friday, August 17, 2018

Today's Air Quality Conditions: Ozone values are rising into the Code Yellow range in the Charlotte, Triad and Triangle regions, with Code Green conditions being observed elsewhere. Particle pollution levels are holding in the lower Code Yellow range across much of the state this afternoon. For a display of the most recent air quality conditions throughout the remainder of this afternoon, please visit the US EPA's AIRNOW web site.

General Forecast Discussion: Tomorrow, increasing moisture aloft and at the surface combined with an approaching upper level trough will lead to some increase in clouds, and the potential for a few showers and storms. With an increasingly tropical air mass, ozone levels will likely struggle to rise beyond the low Code Yellow range in the Charlotte region, and should hold in the Code Green range elsewhere. Particle pollution levels will likely remain near the Code Green/Yellow threshold.

Outlook: On Saturday into Sunday, the upper level trough to the west will approach, and should provide enough large scale forcing in the form of positive vorticity advection and geopotential height falls to initiate more widespread convection on Friday and Saturday. With increased clouds and the potential for rain, ozone levels should lower into the Code Green range statewide for most and particle pollution levels will likely remain near the Code Green/Yellow threshold.

Extended Air Quality Outlook
Forecast Day
AQI Range
Category Range
Friday 55 Yellow
Saturday 45-60 Green-Yellow
Sunday 45-60 Green-Yellow

Note: Ozone is forecast from April 1 to October 31. During the cool season ozone is typically in the Code Green range.

(McLamb - NC Division of Air Quality)